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European stocks rebound as Paris tops 4,000 points

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May 182013
 

LONDON: Europe’s main stock markets rebounded on Friday, with Paris jumping above 4,000 points for the first time since July 2011 as traders went bargain-hunting after earlier losses, dealers said.

Paris’s CAC 40 index climbed 0.56 per cent to close the day at 4,001.27 points.

Meanwhile in Frankfurt the DAX 30 index closed with a fresh record high after gaining 0.34 per cent to 8,398 points, and London’s FTSE 100 index added 0.53 per cent to 6,723.06 points.

Rome added 0.34 per cent to 17,604 points and Madrid rose 0.47 per cent to 8,582.4 points.

“What we are seeing here is just another case of buying the dips,” analyst Craig Erlam at trading group Alpari said.

Markets had traded in negative territory for much of the morning, after overnight losses on Wall Street, as sentiment was hurt by weak economic data and speculation that the Federal Reserve was mulling an exit to its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus policy, dealers said.

“Earlier in the session, European stocks were in negative territory following the comments from two members of the Fed that suggested we could see the asset purchases phased out as early as this summer,” Erlam told AFP.

“As we have seen on numerous occasions recently, this has just been taken as an opportunity to buy the dip and continue to drive the indices.

He added: “The fact that the threat of asset purchases being scaled back as early as this summer hasn’t been taken too seriously (and) shows that very little is going to stop these indices continuing to hit new highs.

“At this stage it seems that only suggestions from (Fed chief) Ben Bernanke himself about the scaling back of asset purchases will bring investors back down to earth.”

According to Dow Jones Newswires, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said he was open to scaling back the Fed’s bond-buying programme in the coming months if the economy continued to improve.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser had already hinted at a potential tapering out of the US central bank’s QE stimulus.

“In light of reports this week that the Fed has mapped out a plan to exit QE, traders are on edge about the prospects of the US economic recovery,” said ETX Capital analyst Ishaq Siddiqi.

“Markets… are unsure if the US economy can go at it alone without the support of the central bank in forthcoming months.”

In foreign exchange deals on Friday, the European single currency slid to $1.2814 from $1.2881 late in New York on Thursday as the greenback won support from a solid report on US consumer sentiment.

The rise in the University of Michigan’s index on consumer sentiment to 83.7 in May, above the 78.5 estimated by analysts, also helped push up stocks on Wall Street.

In midday trade the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.42 per cent to 15,296.64 points, the broad-based S&P 500 increased 0.49 per cent to 1,658.52 points, and the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.47 per cent to 3,481.67 points.

Asian stock markets meanwhile turned in a mixed performance, with sentiment also hit by losses in New York on Thursday.

Tokyo gained 0.67 per cent, Shanghai stocks added 0.21 per cent and Sydney rose 0.29 per cent, while Taipei fell 0.26 per cent. Hong Kong and Seoul markets were closed for public holidays.

Elsewhere on Friday, the yen remained pressured by Japan’s enormous monetary easing policies.

The euro rose to 132.04 yen from 131.74 on Thursday. It had soared as high as 132.77 yen on Tuesday, touching the highest level since January 2012.

And the dollar rose as high as 103.13 yen on Friday, the highest level since the beginning of October 2008. It later settled back to 103.04 yen, up from 102.25 on Thursday.

On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold dipped to $1,368.75 an ounce, from $1,381 late on Thursday.

Wall Street rally; growth stocks in command

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May 182013
 

NEW YORK: Growth sectors led Wall Street’s advance on Friday as encouraging economic data put major U.S. stock indexes on track to close their fourth straight week of gains.

Data showed Americans felt better about their economic and financial prospects in the first half of the month, with consumer sentiment at its highest level in nearly six years, while a gauge of future economic activity rose in April to a near five-year high.

“Sentiment was way higher than expected, so obviously that’s good, and that speaks to the fact people are getting more confident,” said Doreen Mogavero, CEO of Mogavero, Lee & Co in New York.

The rate of growth in the U.S. economy has been expected to slow in the second quarter as tighter fiscal policy starts to bite. But recent improvement in several areas, including the labor market and retail sales, has suggested the recovery remains resilient.

“Slowly as we are recovering, we are still recovering,” Mogavero said. “The U.S. (market), for all its woes, is still the best place to be at this moment.”

Boeing shares led the industrial sector index higher with a 2.3 percent advance to $98.78, its highest since October 2007.

Earlier in the session, the Dow hit another all-time intraday high at 15,305.44 and the Nasdaq Composite hit its highest level since October 2000.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 53.53 points or 0.35 percent, to 15,286.75, the S&P 500 gained 7.58 points or 0.46 percent, to 1,658.05 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.54 points or 0.48 percent, to 3,481.78.

JPMorgan raised its year-end target on the S&P 500 to 1,715 from 1,580, implying a gain of just under 3.5 percent for the index for the rest of the year.

“We realize investors are apprehensive about making fresh money purchases, but we see the risk/reward as particularly attractive in Technology, Healthcare, and Financials,” said the client note from JPMorgan’s U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee.

General Motors Co shot up 3.7 percent to $33.58 after CLSA raised its rating on the automaker’s stock to “buy” from “underperform.”

JCPenney shares lost 2.4 percent to $18.34 after the retailer reported another steep quarterly loss on weak sales and heavy clearance deals, and Chief Executive Myron Ullman cautioned he needs time to fix the company’s problems.

S&P Dow Jones Indices said after the close on Thursday that S&P MidCap 400 component Kansas City Southern will replace Dean Foods Co in the S&P 500. Kansas City Southern shares gained 0.7 percent to $117.02 while Dean Foods edged up 0.7 percent to $20.74.

Aruba Networks Inc plunged 26.8 percent to $12.91 after the network equipment maker released fourth-quarter results well below Wall Street’s expectations, hurt by rising competition from Cisco Systems Inc.

Wall Street sags after Fed comments, but Cisco surges

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May 172013
 

NEW YORK: US stocks fell on Thursday, with the downturn accelerating late in the day after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank could begin easing up on its monetary stimulus this summer.

The three major US stock indexes had earlier traded in a tight range, supported by a gain of more than 12 percent in Cisco Systems shares and as investors took in a batch of economic data that pointed to slower growth.

But the S&P 500 finished near its session low following the comments from John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who also said the Fed could end its bond purchases later this year, assuming the labor market continues to grow stronger. Williams is not a voter on the Fed’s policy-setting panel this year.

“When a Fed governor is out there and mentions this possibility, it does spook the market a little because I don’t think anybody quite knows how the stock market is going to react once (the stimulus) is taken away,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

The Fed’s purchases of $85 billion a month in bonds has been a significant driver of the rally in equities that has taken indexes to record highs and pushed the S&P 500 up nearly 16 percent this year. Analysts also said the comments could have been viewed as a reason to take a pause after such a strong run-up in stocks. “It turned a boring day into a bit of profit taking,” Ghriskey said.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 42.47 points, or 0.28 percent, to 15,233.22 at the close. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 8.31 points, or 0.50 percent, to end at 1,650.47. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 6.37 points, or 0.18 percent, to finish at 3,465.24. Earlier, the Dow reached a fresh all-time intraday high at 15,302.49.

The Nasdaq fared better than the other two major indexes as Cisco shot up 12.6 percent at $23.89 after the network equipment maker posted a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and said current-quarter revenue could increase.

Economic data had set a lackluster tone in markets early in the day as factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region contracted, while U.S. housing starts plummeted 16.5 percent in April. New claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped last week. However, investors had speculated that soft underlying inflation also means the Fed has room to continue its economic stimulus.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc fell 1.7 percent to $78.50 and dragged on the Dow after the world’s largest retailer posted a quarterly profit that missed expectations, with sales down 1.4 percent at US stores open at least a year.

Tesla Motors Inc shares gained 8.7 percent to $92.25 after the electric carmaker said it aims to raise $830 million through a stock-and-debt offering that will be used to repay its US Department of Energy loans with interest. The stock has surged more than 50 percent since the company reported earnings last week.

Asian shares mixed, dollar firmer on Federal Reserve remarks

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May 172013
 

SINGAPORE: The dollar held firm near a 10-month high versus a basket of currencies on Friday after a US Federal Reserve official said the central bank may begin to taper its asset buying this summer, while Asian shares were mixed.

US equities had sagged on Thursday after John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said the Fed could begin easing back on the monetary gas pedal this summer and end bond buying late this year.

Although Williams does not have a vote in the Fed’s policy-setting panel this year, his comments had weighed on shares, since the Fed’s purchases of $85 billion a month in bonds has been a significant driver of the rally in equities that has taken US stock indexes to record highs this year.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of currencies, rose 0.4 percent to 83.927, nearing a 10-month high of 84.094 set earlier this week.

The dollar’s strength will probably become more prominent later this year, said Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist for Bank of Singapore.

“What we’re seeing right now is more of a rehearsal. It’s likely to pan out on a more sustained basis by late this year,” he said.

“Eventually I think the broad tone of data should show that the US economy is holding up much better than the rest of the world and that would lend more durable support for the US dollar,” he said.

The dollar is likely to gain support particularly against other low-yielding currencies such as the euro, the yen, sterling and the Swiss franc, he added.

In the stock market, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3 percent to 479.75, inching away from last week’s high of 491.17, its strongest level since July 2011.

Japan’s Nikkei share average erased its earlier losses and edged up 0.3 percent, holding near a 5-1/2-year intraday high set on Thursday. The main index in the Philippines fell 0.7 percent, down for a second straight day after having set a record closing high on Wednesday.

Markets in South Korea and Hong Kong were closed on Friday for public holidays.

Spot gold eased to about $1,380 an ounce. Gold had hit a four-week low near $1,369 on Thursday as renewed liquidation in gold ETFs and the recent drop below the $1,400 per ounce level hurt sentiment.

US crude futures slipped to about $95 a barrel.

Economic data the previous day had stirred some negative sentiment about the US economy.

Factory activity contracted in the mid-Atlantic region in May, ground-breaking for new homes tumbled in April and new claims for jobless benefits spiked last week, according to three separate reports.

Coupled with soft underlying inflation, the data suggested weak demand as the US economy entered the second quarter.

Asian shares up on upbeat Japan GDP, but Nikkei misses out

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May 162013
 

SYDNEY: Some stock markets across Asia edged up on Thursday after solid growth data from Japan improved sentiment although Tokyo’s Nikkei lagged, while worries about a prolonged recession in the euro zone kept the common currency under pressure.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.3 percent, with mainland China stocks up 0.8 percent and South Korean stocks nearly 1.0 percent higher.

“The market is turning around as optimism is growing that efforts by global governments including South Korea’s to stimulate the economy will pay off,” said Lee Jae-mahn, a market analyst at Tong Yang Securities.

The Nikkei, however, fell 1.1 percent after earlier hitting a fresh 5-1/2-year high. Still, it is up a staggering 44 percent this year.

“The pace of the rise has been too fast. It’s a healthy correction,” said Norihiro Fujito, strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities of the Nikkei.

Japan’s economy grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter, the quickest pace in a year, beating expectations for a growth rate of 0.7 percent.

“This is undoubtedly very strong growth, and very positive for Japan’s economy,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist, Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

“It’s no longer just about brightening sentiment and rises in equities prices. There’s now proof that Abenomics is working and that the economy is on a solid footing.”

The report stood in stark contrast to the euro zone, which showed the region contracting for a sixth straight quarter as France slid into recession and Germany registered a mere 0.1 percent growth.

The euro zone data had raised expectations for more monetary easing by the European Central Bank, prompting investors to sell the euro.

The euro fetched $1.2873, having fallen more than 0.4 percent to as far as $1.2843 on Wednesday. Against the yen, it was at 131.46, off a three-year peak of 132.78 set earlier in the week.

“The euro zone has registered six straight quarters of contraction and any recovery is likely to be limited in the months ahead,” said Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong.

“Pressure on the ECB to provide more policy accommodation will only be reinforced by today’s release of the April CPI data leaving the euro under further pressure. Near term technical support for EUR/USD is seen around 1.2772.”

Gold also struggled after a 2-percent slide in the previous session. Spot gold was around $1,395 an ounce, having briefly touched a fresh one-month low near $1,387.

Brent crude was little changed at $103.60 a barrel, holding on to Wednesday’s 1.0-percent gain.

Wall Street sets new records; large-caps rally

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May 152013
 

NEW YORK: US stocks rallied to fresh highs on Tuesday as investors picked up large-cap companies’ shares on the expectation that central bank stimulus will help propel the rally further.

Gains were broad, but growth sectors outperformed their peers with bank stocks leading the way. Bank of America, up 2.8 percent at $13.34, was the Dow’s biggest percentage gainer, while Citigroup Inc rose 2.4 percent to $50.09.

Wall Street has rallied without a significant correction since the start of the year, pushing major indexes to all-time records and pushing the S&P 500 up almost 16 percent for 2013 so far.

The ascent has been driven in large part by the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy, designed to stimulate the economy, though investors’ focus has turned to when the Fed may start to rein in its bond-purchase program.

“The developed economies of the world are all easing aggressively, the money is looking for a home, and it’s ending up in the stock markets,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

For now, investors are betting that the central bank will be careful not to remove its support too soon in order to not disrupt the economic recovery it is trying to foster, Hellwig said. So far, declines in the market have been met with buying and investors are trying to gauge how long that can last.

“People are indeed trying to participate in the rally, but at the same time, they’re trying to be cautious,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer of Commonwealth Financial, based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

The S&P 500 financial sector index rose 1.7 percent, while the S&P transports group index gained 1.4 pct. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 123.57 points, or 0.82 percent, to a record 15,215.25 at the close. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 16.57 points, or 1.01 percent, to end at a record 1,650.34. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 23.82 points, or 0.69 percent, to 3,462.61, its highest close since November 2000.

During the session, the Dow hit an all-time intraday high of 15,219.55, while the S&P 500 climbed to an all-time intraday high of 1,651.10. The Nasdaq touched a fresh 52-week high of 3,468.67.

The market had traded sideways for the past three sessions, showing a gain of just 0.07 percent as the winding down of the quarterly earnings season and a light economic calendar have left investors without a strong catalyst for further gains. The Dow’s gains were limited by weakness in Intel Corp, down 1 percent at $23.84, and UnitedHealth Group , off 1.1 percent at $61.73.

US-listed shares of Sony Corp jumped 9.9 percent to $20.76 after billionaire hedge fund investor Daniel Loeb called on the company to spin off its lucrative entertainment arm.

Nokia Corp unveiled a new version of its Lumia smartphone line, but US-listed shares fell 5.2 percent to $3.64. Research company Gartner said Nokia lost 5 percentage points of market share in the first quarter, falling to 14.8 percent.

Solar power companies’ shares fell after Trina Solar Ltd estimated lower panel shipments than a previous outlook and said its results would be hurt by a foreign currency exchange loss. The stock fell 8.8 percent to $5.41, while Yingli Green Energy slid 6.3 percent to $2.36.

Most corporate earnings have been better than expected this quarter. With 90 percent of the S&P 500 companies having reported results so far, 67.2 percent have topped earnings expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data, which is even with the average over the past four quarters. However, only 46.9 percent have beaten revenue expectations, below the 52 percent average over the past four quarters.

Hong Kong shares rebound from lowest in a week

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May 152013
 

HONG KONG: Hong Kong stocks rebounded from a one-week low on Wednesday with a 7 percent surge in shares of top supply chain manager Li & Fung after its chairman said he expected earnings to rise to 2011 levels while UBS upgraded the stock.

Mainland China markets were broadly flat, with midday volumes in both on and offshore Chinese markets among the weakest this year as Premier Li Keqiang warned that the country has limited scope for policy stimulus to boost the economy.

At midday, the Hang Seng Index was up 0.5 percent at 23,046.3 after closing on Tuesday at its lowest since May 6. The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings rose 0.4 percent.

The CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings was flat, while the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.1 percent in the weakest midday bourse volumes in a month.

“I think people are still quite complacent, the official tolerance for a China growth slowdown is substantially higher than what people think,” said Hong Hao, chief strategist at Bank of Communication International Securities.

Growth-sensitive counters such as China Coal were among the bigger underperformers, diving 5.2 percent in Hong Kong, while slipping 0.9 percent in Shanghai.

Gains so far on Wednesday lifted Li & Fung to its highest since March after its chairman, William Fung, said 2013 earnings would rebound to 2011 level as most performance targets have been met, according to Hong Kong media.

Shares of the supply chain manager for Walmart Stores Inc and Target Corp were also helped by an upgrade by UBS analysts from “sell” to “neutral,” assuming a lower settlement of payables for the company.

There were also strong gains for ANTA Sports, which soared 6.4 percent as investors cheered its flat same-store sales growth in the first quarter after the company had warned of negative figures for the first two months of the year while reporting its 2012 annual results.

Sun-Art Retail climbed 2 percent after China’s largest hypermarket chain by market capitalisation said first-quarter net profit rose 16 percent from a year earlier as it continued to expand into lower-tier Chinese cities.

SJM Holdings climbed 2.8 percent to a record high and could extend gains after the Macau casino operator said at midday the Macau government has given it the go-ahead for a project on the Cotai strip in the gambling hub.

Asian shares mostly rise, dollar takes breather

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May 142013
 

TOKYO: Asian shares snapped a two-day losing streak and rose on Tuesday as a suprising rise in US retail sales boosted sentiment, but the dollar took a breather after gaining broadly on growing optimism about the recovery in the world’s largest economy.

A pause in the dollar’s rise helped commodities prices stabilise, with gold gaining 1 percent to recoup losses incurred the previous session.

The dollar shed 0.3 percent against a basket of key currencies, after nearing this year’s high of 83.494 touched last month, as the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3017 .

Stability in the euro zone was evident at Italy’s three-year debt auction on Monday when costs fell to their lowest since January, as investors backstopped by European Central Bank guarantees, brushed off concerns about the country’s political and economic troubles.

“The dollar’s climb is based on the recovery scenario for the US economy, with the strong dollar denting sentiment for commodities which have been weakened by the sluggish growth in emerging countries,” said Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory in Tokyo.

“But the prospect for firmer US growth will raise demand for commodities and lift their prices eventually,” he said, also noting the normalisation in financial markets as seen by falling yields in the peripheral euro zone countries such as Italy.

US stocks paused overnight from last week’s record high closings and European shares edged off five-year highs after renewed concerns about banks sparked profit-taking in the second best-performing sector of the past month.

US retail sales unexpectedly rose in April, prompting Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to upgrade their view on second-quarter growth and drove the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up to a six-week high of 1.925 percent on Monday.

An optimistic outlook for the US economy stirred market talk that the US Federal Reserve could scale back its aggressive bond-buying programme aimed at supporting growth, which has helped drive prices of risk assets higher.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent, with Australian shares inching up 0.2 percent and South Korean shares climbing 1 percent.

“Renewed foreign investor buying, encouraged by US retail sales data, is boosting the market today,” said Cho Seong-joon, a market analyst at NH Investment & Securities, of Seoul stocks.

The Nikkei stock average was up 0.2 percent, after rising as much as 1.7 percent on Monday to scale a fresh peak since January 2008 of 14,849.01.

Japanese equities have been bolstered by the weak yen trend, which accelerated after the Bank of Japan’s April 4 launch of a sweeping monetary expansion campaign aimed at breaking a 15-year deflationary cycle and putting the economy on a sustainable growth path.

“The market is short of new catalysts for now as most of the corporate earnings are out. Since we have confirmed that companies’ conservative earnings forecasts for this year will be revised up, the mid-term trend should be positive,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, strategist at Mizuho Securities.

The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 101.56 , after reaching a 4-1/2-year high of 102.15 yen on Monday. The euro was up 0.1 percent against the yen at 132.18

after touching its highest since January 2010 on Monday.

Commodities have been weighed down by the dollar’s rise, and sent the Australian dollar down to an 11-month low of $0.9940 hit on Monday. The Aussie was up 0.2 percent at $0.9974.

A weaker currency supported Australian shares. Spot gold rose 1 percent to a session high of $1,444.96 an ounce as a weaker dollar helped the metal snap a three-day decline.

US crude futures were up 0.3 percent at $95.41 a barrel and Brent was up 0.1 percent at $102.90.

China shares headed for worst day in three weeks, weigh on Hong Kong

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May 142013
 

HONG KONG: Chinese shares were headed for their worst daily loss in three weeks on Tuesday, dragging Hong Kong markets into the red, after official media suggested that Beijing is unlikely to ease policy despite patchy April economic data.

The Chinese property sector was also hit by fears of more tightening after the 21st Century Business Herald newspaper reported that developers looking to obtain pre-sales licenses for new housing projects in Beijing now require both the approval of the deputy mayor and the housing bureau.

At midday, the CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings was down 2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index shed 1.6 percent. Both indexes are now due for their worst loss since April 23.

Weakness in the mainland forced a reversal of early gains in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 percent, while the China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong slid 0.8 percent, retreating further from a two-month closing high recorded last Friday.

“The latest set of data suggests the economy remains sluggish, and with policy easing looking unlikely, we might be see more weakness when investors sell off the small and mid-cap names, which have been outperforming on the year,” said Zhang Qi, a Shanghai-based analyst with Haitong Securities.

On Tuesday, the CSI500 of small- and mid-cap names listed in the mainland fell 1.8 percent, but is still up nearly 8 percent on the year. This compares to the 1.7 percent loss on the CSI300 and 2.8 percent loss for the Shanghai Composite.

Factory output growth and fixed-asset investment in the world’s second-largest economy were weaker than expected last month, but the China Securities Journal reported that Beijing could tolerate 7 percent growth, compared to the current 8 percent annual target.

Commodities counters were among the biggest percentage losers. Jiangxi Copper is set for its third-straight loss in Hong Kong, falling 3.1 percent. Its Shanghai listing shed 2.4 percent.

Macquarie analysts downgraded their view on its H-share listing from “outperform” to “neutral”, while cutting their price target by 32 percent, expecting copper prices to remain weak through 2014 due to a worsened surplus of supply.

China Vanke and Poly Real Estate were among top index drags after the Securities Times reported flat new home prices in Beijing in the first 12 days of May and declining volumes and prices in the secondary market.

Vanke fell 2.4 percent in Shenzhen, while Poly Real Estate slid 2.4 percent in Shanghai. China Overseas Land fell 0.9 percent to its lowest since end-April in Hong Kong.

Producers of Chinese premium alcohol, often offered as gifts to officials by those seeking favour, were hurt after Premier Li Keqiang called for less political power in China’s market economy.

Kweichow Moutai dived 3.7 percent after closing on Monday at its highest since Jan. 23 in Shanghai. Wuliangye shed 2.6 percent and was set for its worst loss since March 27.

Standard Chartered rebounded 3.7 percent from Monday’s more than five-month closing low. U.S. activist investors Muddy Waters told a conference last week it had bet against the bank because of its “deteriorating” loan quality.

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